Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is back for the Blue Jays, and their playoff hopes may ride entirely on him.
Toronto just survived a brutal 13-game stretch against the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays, going 8-5 to stay alive in the wild-card race.
That stretch could have broken this season. Instead, the Blue Jays are still standing, sitting 1.5 games back of the third wild-card spot.
The Rangers and Guardians currently share that spot, with Toronto, the Twins, Orioles, Mariners, and Tigers all still in the mix behind them.
The good news: Toronto doesn't face a single team over .500 for the rest of the season, the second-easiest remaining schedule in baseball.
Only the Mariners have it slightly easier. The Guardians sit close behind Toronto in third.
That schedule still has traps. The Royals have won eight straight games heading into a six-game set with the Blue Jays, proof that timing matters as much as record.
Why everything comes back to Guerrero's bat
Guerrero returned to the lineup Saturday from the concussion IL after last week's collision against the Yankees.
He has just seven home runs all season, and Toronto ranks 29th in runs per game and 28th in home runs as a team.
This isn't the offense the Blue Jays were built to be, and Guerrero is the single biggest reason why.
His week away may have given him something valuable beyond rest, a break from whatever mental weight builds during a slump this deep.
He needs an immediate spark now that he's back, then a couple more good days to remind himself what he's capable of.
On the mound, Spencer Arrighetti looks likely to take the fifth rotation spot, replacing the bullpen day Toronto has been using there.
Ideally, an upcoming off day gets used to separate Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber, and Arrighetti in the rotation, since all three carry more bullpen risk than Dylan Cease or Jose Soriano.
There may be nights where John Schneider has to sacrifice a game to protect the bullpen for the next one. That's the cost of a playoff push with this kind of pitching depth.
Elsewhere around the league, Pete Alonso is hitting .488 over his last 15 games for the Orioles, and Randy Arozarena stole the show from top prospect Kade Anderson with a walk-off homer in Seattle.
None of that changes Toronto's math. The schedule is favorable. The path is there. Whether Guerrero can actually walk it is the only question that matters now.
Can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. turn his season around in time to save the Blue Jays' playoff push?
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